Define the job and measurement boundary
Compare incident counts using matching shipment denominators, observation periods, product mix and routes. Record net incident loss after documented recoveries.
Value damage incidents for an explicit period using observed rates and net unrecovered loss. Document included refund, replacement, handling and recoveries without double counting.
Work through the numbers
Across 10,000 shipments, a one-point reduction at EUR 40/incident avoids EUR 4,000. EUR 0.15 extra protection plus EUR 500 setup costs EUR 2,000, leaving EUR 2,000 net benefit.
Period expected damage cost = Shipments × Damage fraction × Net loss/incident 10,000 shipments × 2% × EUR 40 = EUR 8,000 in the entered period.
Net period benefit = Q × ((Baseline − Trial)/100 × Incident cost − Extra protection) − Change costs 10,000 × ((2% − 1%) × EUR 40 − EUR 0.15) − EUR 500 = EUR 2,000 net benefit.
Required percentage-point reduction = (Extra cost + Change costs/Q) / Incident loss × 100 (EUR 0.15 + EUR 500 / 10,000) / EUR 40 × 100 = 0.5 percentage points.
Avoid the comparison error
A change from 2% to 1% is one percentage point, or 50% relative reduction. A small uncontrolled trial does not prove that packaging caused the difference.
- Observed or explicitly assumed rate, not a predicted protection performance.
- No annualisation unless the entered period is a year.
- No statistical confidence or technical approval inferred.
- Rate denominators and product/shipping mix must match.
- Absolute percentage points, not a relative percentage reduction.
- Constant incident loss and equivalent shipment scope.
Prepare a comparable purchasing decision
Replace each example with dated measurements and confirmed charges for the same SKU and job. Keep unresolved specification differences visible rather than ranking incompatible offers.
Record the original quote unit, material scope, fixed charges, freight and valid quantity tier. Review an alternative as a separate scenario before adding it to the complete packaging cost.
Case: higher protection cost can reduce total loss expense
Across an explicitly defined 10,000-shipment period, an entered incident rate falls from 2% to 1%. At EUR 40 net loss per incident, that difference avoids EUR 4,000 in the scenario. EUR 0.15 extra protection per shipment plus EUR 500 change costs totals EUR 2,000.
Net scenario benefit is EUR 2,000. The calculation does not establish that packaging caused the observed difference; check comparable routes, product mix and trial evidence before using the rate for a decision.
Common questions
Which data should I measure first?
Compare incident counts using matching shipment denominators, observation periods, product mix and routes. Record net incident loss after documented recoveries.
What can make this comparison misleading?
A change from 2% to 1% is one percentage point, or 50% relative reduction. A small uncontrolled trial does not prove that packaging caused the difference.